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That silly economy, it keeps growing (albeit very slowly) and adding jobs (though not payroll) and that pesky unemployment rate refuses to budge from around five percent.
What's a Cassandra to do?!
I mine aside from voting Democrat, that is. There won't be an "official" recession in time for the election, but you can be sure people who think it is necessary for there to be on in order to get elected will make you think there is one.
Current Mood : amused 
Tags : economy
Location : The living room
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Something everyone can learn from seeing overextended (aka "highly leveraged", aka "pyramided", aka "margined") companies get taken over is that when you make a bet for $100 but only put down $1 pretty soon someone will ask for the other $99.
And if you don't have it...someone who only has $2 can buy your debt (and you).
If you want to know who is making the most money (and who is bearing the most costs) from this kind of financial shakeup...just look back to the S&L "bailout" and the Long Term Capital "bailout".
Hint: the people making the money are not you; the people bearing the costs are. Be careful what you wish for when you wish the government would "do something" about this "crisis" or that "crisis". What the government usually does is take your money and give it to someone else.
P.S. Don't invest more than 10% of your total savings in your company's stock. Really. Not kidding. Go check your statements!
Current Mood : cynical 
Tags : economy
Location : Not Belgium
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This quarter will be crucial for the US economy. Job losses in both payroll and population surveys point to more than a mere "soft spot". The question is what, if anything, the federal government should do about it.
Tax cuts would be nice, as I have mentioned before, but the political will simply isn't there. Couple that with the looming explosion in entitlements and tax rates may actually go up.
Unfortunately the current government (at all levels) is failing the leadership test badly. President Bush talks about things like nuclear energy without moving anything forward and Congress is busy trying to obtain a negative approval rate instead of dealing with the budget problems.
The economy may also cause problems for the war on terrorism. The incoming administration may have no choice but to cut spending (especially in Iraq) due to budget constraints.
The people who have been talking down the economy (some for as long as seven years) should not be proud of themselves. They've simply reached the broken clock phase of their "predictions" syncing with the actual economic conditions. Indeed, if their powers of precognition were as awesome as they claim they'd already have all the answers for boosting the economy out of any possible recession.
Now my prediction for who will win in November: whichever candidate makes the strongest case for moving America forward on energy and taxes. Feel free to vote for me! I will cut taxes in the middle of the rate structure and drastically reduce taxes on investments. Give me the power and I'll return it in the form of two dozen new nuclear power plants, wind farms off of Cape Cod, solar farms in the southwest, drilling in ANWR and off of Florida and four new gasoline refineries. I'll get the government out of health care and retirement and return the taxes to the people who pay them. Vote for reality in 2008! :D
Somehow I doubt either candidate from the Republican or Democrat party will offer such policies. Instead we'll be treated to more of the same failed policies and excuses as to why we have to keep funding them.
Current Mood : working 
Tags : bush administration, congress, economy
Location : Home
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Wait, what? Isn't everyone whining and moaning about a job loss?
Yes, they are. Payroll jobs declined by 17,000 in January. However, the Household Survey showed a net job gain of 37,000 and a job loss is a lot more hype-able, especially when people are determined to talk about a potential, possible recession that we may or may not be in.
For those who don't want to play games, however, the net gain of 37,000 combined with a reduction in the number of people looking for jobs resulted in a decrease in the unemployment level to 4.9%. Again, that's not a number conducive to headline hyping, so you won't see a lot of talk about that.
The thing is, a net job creation of 37,000 and GDP growth rate initially forecast at 0.6% for the fourth quarter aren't exactly stellar results. So why do people feel the need to spin the numbers even more?
Al Gore ran into a problem when he felt the need to spin everything he had ever done in his life. The media obviously hasn't learned their lesson about that...yet.
Current Mood : cynical
Tags : economic growth, economy, jobs
Location : Home
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Not so much.
The proposed tax rebates and welfare (oops, sorry, I mean "refundable tax credits") proposed by Congress to stimulate the economy are a little like people using a cash advance on a credit card to pay off some bills.
It might work to tide you over but then there's the debt that you have to face at some point.
With a budget laden with pork why couldn't Congress find $200 billion to cut instead? Are they telling us every last penny is so vital to America that they can't find anything to cut?
Talk about bridges to nowhere....
Then again, if Congress has finally decided that Americans pre-paying taxes hurts the economy let's put an end to withholding!
I won't hold my breath on that.
Current Mood : cynical
Tags : bush administration, congress, economics, economy
Location : Home
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