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Reality Hammer - For People Who Can Handle The Truth - Iran: the next North Korea? Time to play the China card.
LiveJournal's most famous "political operative"
November 20th, 2004
Iran: the next North Korea? Time to play the China card.
When Bill Clinton was President the conventional wisdom was that when a country threatened to go nuclear, you bribed them with free oil and (oddly enough) nuclear fuel for nuclear reactors.
With Iran quickly racing down the nuclear pathway, and Iran sitting on vast oil reserves, one wonders what conventional wisdom will say this time. Sure, John Kerry tried to dig up the disgraced "let them have nuclear reactors" strategy, but other than the Democrats in the United States, is anyone willing to support that failed policy this time around?
The short answer from those who trumpet conventional wisdom is "what failed policy?" As John Kerry demonstrated, fans of endless negotiations think nothing has gone wrong in North Korea, and that it is all President Bush's fault for not continuing to negotiate with North Korea. The fact that North Korea went ahead and produced nuclear weapons is beside the point for fans of negotiation.
So, too, is the fact that Iran is producing components necessary for building nuclear weapons while promising not to actually build them. The latest reports have Iran furiously producing uranium hexafluoride ahead of a "deal" that would allegedly see Iran stop trying to produce nuclear weapons.
One thing is for sure, Iran has learned that the United Nations is powerless to act, and anyone with money or the ability to tell a bad lie can tie up the United Nations in endless negotiations while the "prohibited" activity continues apace. The only cure for that is the tangible threat of force. For that, the United States will need more than Britain. President Bush and Prime Minister Blair went against conventional wisdom and liberated Iraq, much to the dismay of the talking heads at the United Nations. With their troops deployed in Iraq another military solution appears out of the question for Iran unless another major power is involved.
Colin Powell (and Condi Rice, eventually) have their work cut out for them. The United Nations can do little more than issue strongly worded press releases. At this stage, it would take a unanimous resolution from the security council authorizing force to move either Iran or North Korea. As unreal as it seems, China may be our best bet for restoring order in both Iran and North Korea, whether we go through the United Nations or around it. China wants to be a major player in the world, both economically and politically. China also has the troops available and is certainly interested in neutralizing two rogue nuclear states in Asia. China would want something in return, of course.
Rice would do well to look to Russia as an example of how to achieve that goal. Russia gave in to the Kyoto treaty in return for membership in international trade organizations. Rice should offer China a similar deal: China helps us get rid of the nuclear threat in North Korea and Iran and in return the United States gets China into the major world trade organizations. China, having tasted the addictive power of capitalism, needs the world markets to sustain its growing economy.
We turned Russia away from Communism and we can certainly do the same in China. An expanding capitalist system in China will lay the groundwork for democracy just as a liberalized economic system in the Soviet Union helped bring about democracy for Russia and the former Soviet vassal states. If Rice can pull it off, it will be the greatest accomplishment in diplomacy since Bismark negotiated peace between Russia and Austria-Hungary. Current Mood : contemplative Tags : china, iran
great post, what scares me tho in terms of China is when that nation starts mass producing cheaplabored cars and we the american consumer begin buying them, you can pretty much kiss the American Economy goodbye. I know that may a bit of an exaggeration, but it frightens me
First, as China's economy grows it creates its own middle class that causes a demand for those very same goods. A lot of Chinese production will be eaten up by domestic consumption. That middle class will also demand US goods like software, music, movies and other entertainment. Similar things happened in Taiwan, Japan and Korea.
Secondly, as the Japanese and Koreans and Germans learned, it is more efficient to build cars in the USA for consumption in the US than it is to build them overseas and ship them here.
A global economy creates competition, but it also creates new markets. Efficient, well-run companies will continue to prosper.
"I call upon the scientific community in our country, those who gave us nuclear weapons, to turn their great talents now to the cause of mankind and world peace, to give us the means of rendering those nuclear weapons impotent and obsolete."
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